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Birkenhead vs Waiheke United

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Hughes C.
40' Event
Connor-McClean A.
45' Event
Connor-McClean A.

AI Match Summary

Birkenhead in this Chatham Cup 2025 matchup, with the score ending 7-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Birkenhead.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Birkenhead
11%
Draws
9%
Waiheke United
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Birkenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Birkenhead have won more games recently than Waiheke United.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Birkenhead taking it.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Chatham Cup 2025 game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 97%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 97%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 19%
Waiheke United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birkenhead Waiheke United
Matches Played 30 1
Wins 15 0
Draws 3 0
Losses 12 1
Goals Scored 2.5 0
Goals Conceded 1.5 7
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 7.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Chatham Cup
Birkenhead vs Waiheke United
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Birkenhead Compare

Top Goalscorer Hughes C.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Connor-McClean A.
3 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Waiheke United Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birkenhead 76 / 100
Waiheke United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birkenhead Waiheke United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BIR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birkenhead's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Waiheke United conceded in 100% of 1 recent games.

Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Birkenhead remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Birkenhead VS Waiheke United
2.5 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 7
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2