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Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United

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AI Match Summary

Birmingham Legion play Loudoun United in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Birmingham Legion averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Loudoun United averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Birmingham Legion won 1, Loudoun United won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 21, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Birmingham Legion and 1.00 for Loudoun United. This points to a Birmingham Legion double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Birmingham Legion
35%
Draws
31%
Loudoun United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Birmingham Legion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Birmingham Legion picked up more points recently compared to Loudoun United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Birmingham Legion Clean Sheet 23%
Loudoun United Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birmingham Legion Loudoun United
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 5 6
Draws 13 9
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.21 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United
1:1
Apr 4, 2026 USL Championship
Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion
2:2
Oct 4, 2025 USL Championship
Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion
0:1
Mar 9, 2025 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United
1:3
Sep 14, 2024 USL Championship
Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Birmingham Legion Compare

Top Goalscorer Tregarthen S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Loudoun United Compare

Top Goalscorer Aboukoura A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birmingham Legion 35 / 100
Loudoun United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birmingham Legion Loudoun United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Birmingham Legion or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Birmingham Legion attacking → ← attacking Loudoun United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birmingham Legion scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Loudoun United let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Birmingham Legion went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Loudoun United lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 27
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1447312:1319
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1344523:1816
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
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1Orange County SC1677225:1828
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6Sacramento Republic1354415:1319
7El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
8FC Tulsa1354417:1619
9Lexington1353521:1618
10Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215