Sport Picks
Birmingham vs Port Vale
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham 
Match Events
30'
30'
Neumann P.
39'
39'
Leonard M.
45'
45'
Headley J.
Assist: Croasdale R.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Port Vale advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Birmingham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Port Vale haven't matched Birmingham's recent run of results.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Birmingham taking it.
- Birmingham have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Port Vale, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Birmingham Clean Sheet 20%
Port Vale Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Birmingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Birmingham vs Port Vale
0:1
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Port Vale vs Birmingham
0:2
Jul 27, 2016 Club Friendly
Port Vale vs Birmingham
0:2
Jan 22, 2000 Championship
Port Vale vs Birmingham
3:1
Aug 21, 1999 Championship
Birmingham vs Port Vale
4:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Birmingham Compare
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Port Vale Compare
Top Goalscorer Headley J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Birmingham 42 / 100
Port Vale 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Birmingham Port Vale
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Birmingham remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Birmingham scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Port Vale has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Birmingham VS Port Vale
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Birmingham
(Home) 25 Jul
Crewe
1 : 2 Birmingham
22 Jul
Burton
0 : 1 Birmingham
15 Jul
Solihull Moors
0 : 3 Birmingham
10 Jul
Birmingham
3 : 1 Huddersfield
02 May
Portsmouth
1 : 1 Birmingham
Page 1 of 6
10 Jul
Birmingham
3 : 1 Huddersfield
25 Apr
Birmingham
2 : 1 Bristol City
22 Apr
Birmingham
2 : 1 Preston
12 Apr
Birmingham
2 : 0 Wrexham
03 Apr
Birmingham
0 : 1 Blackburn
Page 1 of 3
Port Vale
(Away) 25 Jul
Port Vale
1 : 0 Murcia
18 Jul
Wigan
1 : 3 Port Vale
14 Jul
Port Vale
5 : 0 Tamworth
02 May
Port Vale
0 : 2 Lincoln City
28 Apr
Stockport County
1 : 2 Port Vale
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Wigan
1 : 3 Port Vale
28 Apr
Stockport County
1 : 2 Port Vale
25 Apr
Plymouth
2 : 1 Port Vale
22 Apr
Cardiff
1 : 0 Port Vale
16 Apr
Peterborough
1 : 3 Port Vale
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow0
Preston1
Wrexham4
Hull City3
Portsmouth1
Reading2
Gillingham1
AFC Wimbledon2
Burnley-
TBD-
West Brom1
Derby2
Cardiff2
Swindon1
Cheltenham2
Exeter0
Wolves-
TBD-
TBD-
West Ham-
Everton-
TBD-
Chesterfield0
Mansfield2
Tranmere1
Burton2
Harrogate1
Lincoln City3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham2
Sheffield Utd1
Blackpool0
Port Vale1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley3
Fleetwood Town2
Salford0
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd1
Colchester0
TBD-
Brighton-
Liverpool-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Watford1
Norwich2
Northampton0
Southampton1
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Newport0
Millwall1
Coventry1
Luton0
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Stoke City1
Walsall0
Blackburn1
Bradford City2
Tottenham-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Accrington2
Peterborough1
Middlesbrough0
Doncaster4
Wigan1
Notts County0
Stockport County3
Crewe1
Bromley2
Ipswich1
Leyton Orient0
Wycombe1
Fulham-
TBD-
Bristol City2
Milton Keynes Dons0
Bristol Rovers0
Cambridge Utd2
Charlton3
Stevenage1
Swansea3
Crawley Town1
Plymouth3
QPR2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland-
TBD-
Huddersfield3
Leicester2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Manchester City-
Bolton3
Sheffield Wed4
TBD-
Leeds-
Grimsby3
Shrewsbury1
TBD-
Manchester United-
Bournemouth-
TBD-
TBD-
Brentford-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/32-finals
Preston2
Wrexham3
Reading2
AFC Wimbledon1
Burnley2
Derby1
Cardiff3
Cheltenham0
Wolves3
West Ham2
Everton2
Mansfield0
Burton0
Lincoln City1
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham0
Port Vale1
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley2
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd0
Brighton6
Liverpool-
TBD-
Norwich0
Southampton3
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
Millwall2
Coventry1
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
Stoke City0
Bradford City3
Tottenham-
TBD-
Accrington0
Doncaster2
Wigan1
Stockport County0
Bromley1
Wycombe2
Fulham2
Bristol City0
Cambridge Utd3
Charlton1
Swansea2
Plymouth1
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland1
Huddersfield2
TBD-
Manchester City-
Sheffield Wed2
Leeds1
Grimsby3
Manchester United2
Bournemouth0
Brentford2
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/16-finals
Wrexham2
Reading0
Burnley1
Cardiff2
Wolves2
Everton0
Lincoln City1
Chelsea2
Port Vale0
Arsenal2
Barnsley0
Brighton6
Liverpool2
Southampton1
Crystal Palace2
Millwall1
Newcastle Utd4
Bradford City1
Tottenham3
Doncaster0
Wigan0
Wycombe2
Fulham1
Cambridge Utd0
Swansea3
Nottingham2
Huddersfield0
Manchester City2
Sheffield Wed0
Grimsby1
Brentford2
Aston Villa1
1/8-finals
Wrexham1
Cardiff2
Wolves3
Chelsea4
Arsenal2
Brighton0
Liverpool0
Crystal Palace3
Newcastle Utd2
Tottenham0
Wycombe1
Fulham2
Swansea1
Manchester City3
Grimsby0
Brentford5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff1
Chelsea3
Arsenal2
Crystal Palace1
Newcastle Utd2
Fulham1
Manchester City2
Brentford0
Semi-finals
Chelsea2
Arsenal4
Newcastle Utd1
Manchester City5
Final
Arsenal0
Manchester City2
