Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bistritsa vs Rilski Sportist

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West Bistritsa Stadium
Sat, Mar 21, 2026
0 - 3
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bistritsa play Rilski Sportist in the Third League - South-West. Rilski Sportist are favorites here. Recently, Bistritsa averaged 1.22 goals scored and 2 conceded. Rilski Sportist averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Bistritsa won 2, Rilski Sportist won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Bistritsa and 2.19 for Rilski Sportist. This points to a Rilski Sportist double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Bistritsa
15%
Draws
56%
Rilski Sportist
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rilski Sportist

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Bistritsa picked up more points recently compared to Rilski Sportist.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Bistritsa Clean Sheet 10%
Rilski Sportist Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bistritsa Rilski Sportist
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 22
Draws 2 2
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 1.22 1.6
Goals Conceded 2 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Third League - South-West
Bistritsa vs Rilski Sportist
0:3
Sep 13, 2025 Third League - South-West
Rilski Sportist vs Bistritsa
0:0
Feb 25, 2025 Third League - South-West
Rilski Sportist vs Bistritsa
0:4
Aug 3, 2024 Third League - South-West
Bistritsa vs Rilski Sportist
0:2
Feb 17, 2024 Third League - South-West
Bistritsa vs Rilski Sportist
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bistritsa 28 / 100
Rilski Sportist 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bistritsa Rilski Sportist

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rilski Sportist Win (2)
Secondary Pick Rilski Sportist & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bistritsa attacking → ← attacking Rilski Sportist

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bistritsa scored in 50% of their last 32 games.

Rilski Sportist let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Bistritsa went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Rilski Sportist lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 68
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rilski Sportist34255458:2380
2Strumska Slava34205971:4565
3Slavia Sofia 2341761168:4457
4Botev Ihtiman341491153:4051
5Kyustendil341551449:5250
6CSKA Sofia III341551449:4350
7Oborishte Panagyurishte341471343:3749
8Balkan Botevgrad3413101150:4549
9Septemvri Sofia 2341391250:4348
10Septemvri Simitli341381341:4047
11Kostinbrod341451547:5147
12Pirin Razlog341361543:4845
13Bansko3411111239:4544
14Slivnishki Geroy341191440:4942
15Levski Sofia II341171630:4440
16Gotse Delchev341141943:7037
17Germaneya34462438:7518
18Bistritsa341151844:6238