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Blue Star vs UP Country Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka

Super League
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Arepade J.
34' Event
Ishan A.
37' Event
Ishan A.

AI Match Summary

UP Country Lions in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 1-9 — backing the pre-match view that favored UP Country Lions.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Blue Star
15%
Draws
53%
UP Country Lions
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UP Country Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UP Country Lions lately — more wins on the board than Blue Star.
  • Win probability leans UP Country Lions's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Blue Star Clean Sheet 10%
UP Country Lions Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Blue Star UP Country Lions
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 19
Draws 3 1
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.79 2.45
Goals Conceded 1.79 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Super League
Blue Star vs UP Country Lions
1:9
Dec 12, 2021 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Blue Star
1:2
Nov 11, 2018 Super League
Blue Star vs UP Country Lions
2:1
Oct 25, 2017 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Blue Star
2:2
Aug 3, 2016 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Blue Star
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Blue Star Compare

Top Goalscorer Shifan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

UP Country Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer York B.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Ishan A.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.9
Avg xA / game 1.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Blue Star 10 / 100
UP Country Lions 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Blue Star UP Country Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UP Country Lions Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.80 goals per match.

Blue Star found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

UP Country Lions's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Blue Star went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Blue Star VS UP Country Lions
1.5 Goals Scored 4.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Blue Star

(Home)
14 Sept
Ratnam SC
1 : 3
Blue Star
05 Sept
Defenders FC
1 : 2
Blue Star
29 Aug
Blue Star
2 : 3
Renown
23 Aug
Blue Star
0 : 2
Colombo
18 Aug
New Young's SC
0 : 5
Blue Star
Page 1 of 6

UP Country Lions

(Away)
13 Sept
Renown
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
08 Sept
Colombo
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
28 Aug
UP Country Lions
4 : 0
Blue Eagles
22 Aug
UP Country Lions
6 : 0
New Young's SC
16 Aug
Ratnam SC
1 : 5
UP Country Lions
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UP Country Lions 9 9 0 0 35:3 27
2 Sea Hawks 9 5 3 1 17:4 18
3 Colombo 9 4 4 1 14:5 16
4 Renown 9 4 3 2 21:8 15
5 Red Star 9 4 3 2 16:11 15
6 Blue Star 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
7 Blue Eagles 9 3 1 5 8:12 10
8 Defenders FC 9 2 1 6 11:17 7
9 New Young's SC 9 1 2 6 7:36 5
10 Ratnam SC 9 0 0 9 5:35 0
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)