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Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Kauan
18'
Alvaro
85' Event
Igor Pimenta

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Blumenau and Hercilio Luz finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Blumenau
20%
Draws
69%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 69% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Hercilio Luz have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 15%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Blumenau Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 14 17
Draws 9 4
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.49 1.76
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
May 13, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
0:1
Oct 27, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:4
Sep 16, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Blumenau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Kauan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Igor Pimenta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Blumenau 31 / 100
Hercilio Luz 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Blumenau Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Blumenau scored in 66% of their last 35 games.

Hercilio Luz let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Blumenau went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Blumenau VS Hercilio Luz
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Blumenau

(Home)
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
15 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2 : 2
Blumenau
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)