Sport Picks
Blumenau vs Marcilio Dias - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Santa Catarina 
Match Events
62'
62'
Rony Fernandes
84'
84'
Mateus Norton
90'
90'
Gustavo Modesto
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
30%
58%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marcilio Dias
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Blumenau carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Blumenau have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Marcilio Dias, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 15%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Blumenau | Marcilio Dias |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Blumenau vs Marcilio Dias
1:1
May 16, 2026 Serie D
Blumenau vs Marcilio Dias
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 Serie D
Marcilio Dias vs Blumenau
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Blumenau Compare
Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Marcilio Dias Compare
Top Goalscorer Rony Fernandes
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Blumenau 31 / 100
Marcilio Dias 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Blumenau Marcilio Dias
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marcilio Dias Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Blumenau scored in 67% of their last 33 outings.
Marcilio Dias let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.
Solid form: Blumenau remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Blumenau VS Marcilio Dias
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Blumenau
(Home) 26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1 CA Metropolitano
15 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2 : 2 Blumenau
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0 Blumenau
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1 Santa Catarina
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1 CA Metropolitano
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1 Santa Catarina
22 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2 Nacao
15 Jul
Blumenau
4 : 1 CA Metropolitano
Page 1 of 4
Marcilio Dias
(Away) 26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1 Marcilio Dias
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0 Marcilio Dias
21 Jun
FC Cascavel
2 : 2 Marcilio Dias
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15:9 | 10 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercilio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 9 | Nacao | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:12 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
