Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bogota vs Orsomarso

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogotá
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Castillo D.
45'
Ruiz A.
46'
Sub
Martinez E. In: Hernandez J.
Out: Martinez E.

AI Match Summary

Bogota in this Primera B matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bogota.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Bogota
20%
Draws
40%
Orsomarso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Orsomarso haven't matched Bogota's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Bogota Clean Sheet 68%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 21%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bogota Orsomarso
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.79 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera B
Bogota vs Orsomarso
2:0
Jul 15, 2025 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Bogota
1:1
Feb 1, 2025 Primera B
Bogota vs Orsomarso
2:2
Oct 22, 2024 Primera B
Bogota vs Orsomarso
2:3
May 12, 2024 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Bogota
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bogota Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Orsomarso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bogota 41 / 100
Orsomarso 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bogota Orsomarso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bogota Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Orsomarso conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Orsomarso registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Bogota found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Bogota VS Orsomarso
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bogota

(Home)
14 Sept
Tigres Futbol Club
0 : 0
Bogota
04 Sept
Bogota
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
29 Aug
Atletico F.C.
2 : 1
Bogota
25 Aug
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 2
Bogota
20 Aug
Cartagena
2 : 0
Bogota
Page 1 of 6

Orsomarso

(Away)
14 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Atletico F.C.
10 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Tigres Futbol Club
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
24 Aug
Orsomarso
2 : 0
Real Cundinamarca
20 Aug
Patriotas
1 : 1
Orsomarso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Palmira 15 12 2 1 29:13 38
2 Union Magdalena 15 10 2 3 27:15 32
3 Quindio 15 9 4 2 20:10 31
4 Envigado 15 9 2 4 24:14 29
5 Cartagena 15 7 5 3 23:15 26
6 Bogota 15 6 5 4 16:14 23
7 Barranquilla 15 6 2 7 21:20 20
8 Tigres Futbol Club 15 5 5 5 15:14 20
9 Independiente Valle del Cauca 15 4 7 4 13:14 19
10 Orsomarso 15 4 5 6 13:17 17
11 Patriotas 15 4 5 6 13:17 17
12 Boca Juniors de Cali 15 2 7 6 15:20 13
13 Real Cundinamarca 15 2 7 6 14:19 13
14 Leones 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
15 Atletico F.C. 15 1 6 8 12:23 9
16 Real Santander 15 1 4 10 9:23 7
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)