Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bolivar vs Gremio

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Cauteruccio M.
Assist: Pato Rodriguez
16' Event
Villasanti M.
18' Event
Matheus R.

AI Match Summary

Bolivar in this Copa Sudamericana tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Bolivar
39%
Draws
31%
Gremio
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Bolivar have won more games recently than Gremio.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Bolivar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Gremio, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Gremio here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Bolivar Clean Sheet 16%
Gremio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolivar Gremio
Matches Played 41 26
Wins 26 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2003 Copa Libertadores
Bolivar vs Gremio
1:0
Mar 13, 2003 Copa Libertadores
Gremio vs Bolivar
1:0
May 31, 1983 Copa Libertadores
Gremio vs Bolivar
3:1
Mar 25, 1983 Copa Libertadores
Bolivar vs Gremio
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolivar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cauteruccio M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Villasanti M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tete
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolivar 30 / 100
Gremio 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolivar Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bolivar scored in 95% of their last 41 outings.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Gremio's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Gremio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bolivar VS Gremio
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bolivar

(Home)
18 Jul
Bolivar
4 : 0
Guabira
12 Jul
The Strongest
1 : 1
Bolivar
28 May
Bolivar
1 : 3
Ind. Rivadavia
19 May
Fluminense
2 : 1
Bolivar
16 May
Club Universitario de Vinto
3 : 2
Bolivar
Page 1 of 9

Gremio

(Away)
17 Jul
Mirassol
2 : 1
Gremio
12 Jul
Gremio
3 : 1
Cruzeiro
04 Jul
Gremio
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
27 Jun
FC Cascavel
1 : 2
Gremio
30 May
Gremio
1 : 3
Corinthians
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Boca Juniors-
O Higgins-
TBD-
Recoleta-
Bolivar-
Gremio-
TBD-
Sao Paulo-
Santa Fe-
Caracas-
TBD-
River Plate-
Ind. Medellin2
Vasco2
TBD-
Olimpia Asuncion-
Sporting Cristal0
Bragantino0
TBD-
Atletico-MG-
Universidad Central1
Santos4
TBD-
Macara-
Club Nacional0
Tigre3
TBD-
Montevideo City-
Lanus2
Cienciano0
TBD-
Botafogo RJ-
1/8-finals
TBD-
Recoleta-
TBD-
Sao Paulo-
TBD-
River Plate-
TBD-
Olimpia Asuncion-
TBD-
Atletico-MG-
TBD-
Macara-
TBD-
Montevideo City-
TBD-
Botafogo RJ-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-