Sport Picks
Bologna vs Aston Villa Prediction & H2H Stats
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna 
Match Events
14'
14'
Lucumi J.
26'
26'
Konsa E.
44'
44'
Konsa E.
Assist: Tielemans Y.
AI Match Summary
Aston Villa in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
11%
20%
69%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
69%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Bologna.
- Win probability leans Aston Villa's way, sitting at 70%.
- Aston Villa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Aston Villa, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Aston Villa here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Bologna Clean Sheet 21%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bologna | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 2.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Europa League
Aston Villa vs Bologna
4:0
Apr 9, 2026 Europa League
Bologna vs Aston Villa
1:3
Sep 25, 2025 Europa League
Aston Villa vs Bologna
1:0
Oct 22, 2024 Champions League
Aston Villa vs Bologna
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bologna Compare
Top Goalscorer Rowe J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Watkins O.
2 Goals Assists Leader Konsa E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bologna 16 / 100
Aston Villa 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bologna Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aston Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Aston Villa conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
Bologna's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.75 goals.
Recent resilience: Bologna stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bologna VS Aston Villa
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Bologna
(Home) 19 Sept
Bologna
1 : 1 Torino
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0 Bologna
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2 Sassuolo
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0 Bologna
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1 Lazio
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Bologna
1 : 1 Torino
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2 Sassuolo
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1 Lazio
08 Aug
Bologna
1 : 4 Pisa
01 Aug
Bologna
3 : 1 Cambuur
Page 1 of 4
Aston Villa
(Away) 02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
