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Bolton vs Stockport County

England England

League One 2025/2026 Toughsheet Community Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Bolton play Stockport County in the League One 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bolton averaged 1.66 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Stockport County averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Bolton won 1, Stockport County won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Bolton and 1.56 for Stockport County. This points to a Stockport County double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bolton
25%
Draws
39%
Stockport County
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Stockport County

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Bolton picked up more points recently compared to Stockport County.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Bolton Clean Sheet 15%
Stockport County Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolton Stockport County
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 17
Draws 11 5
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.66 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 League One
Bolton vs Stockport County
4:1
Apr 6, 2026 League One
Bolton vs Stockport County
2:2
Aug 3, 2025 League One
Stockport County vs Bolton
2:0
Mar 15, 2025 League One
Bolton vs Stockport County
0:1
Nov 9, 2024 League One
Stockport County vs Bolton
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolton Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenny J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Stockport County Compare

Top Goalscorer Sidibeh A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edun T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolton 35 / 100
Stockport County 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolton Stockport County

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Stockport County or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bolton attacking → ← attacking Stockport County

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bolton scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Stockport County let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Bolton went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Stockport County lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 56
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435