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Bonsucesso vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

64' Event
Gabriel Cipriano

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Bonsucesso and Nova Cidade finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bonsucesso
44%
Draws
20%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Bonsucesso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 25%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bonsucesso Nova Cidade
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 11 11
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 0
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Nova Cidade
1:0
Oct 28, 2020 Carioca 2
Nova Cidade vs Bonsucesso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Cipriano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Nova Cidade Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bonsucesso 37 / 100
Nova Cidade 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bonsucesso Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bonsucesso's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nova Cidade conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Solid form: Bonsucesso remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bonsucesso VS Nova Cidade
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bonsucesso

(Home)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
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Nova Cidade

(Away)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Bonsucesso
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
18 Oct
Nova Cidade
0 : 0
Artsul
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)