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Bonsucesso vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

64' Event
Gabriel Cipriano

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Bonsucesso and Nova Cidade finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Bonsucesso
35%
Draws
32%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Bonsucesso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Bonsucesso are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bonsucesso Nova Cidade
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 10 11
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.1 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Nova Cidade
1:0
Oct 28, 2020 Carioca 2
Nova Cidade vs Bonsucesso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Cipriano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Nova Cidade Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bonsucesso 51 / 100
Nova Cidade 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bonsucesso Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bonsucesso's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nova Cidade conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Solid form: Bonsucesso remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bonsucesso VS Nova Cidade
0.88 Goals Scored 0.67
1 Goals Conceded 1.67
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Bonsucesso

(Home)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
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Nova Cidade

(Away)
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)