Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Botafogo RJ vs Flamengo RJ

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Quissanga B.
19' Event
Lucas Paqueta
Assist: Bruno Henrique
45'
Sub
Danilo In: Novaes A.
Out: Danilo

AI Match Summary

Flamengo RJ in this Carioca tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Botafogo RJ
17%
Draws
70%
Flamengo RJ
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Flamengo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Flamengo RJ lately — more wins on the board than Botafogo RJ.
  • Flamengo RJ are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Flamengo RJ arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Flamengo RJ, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Flamengo RJ here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 17%
Flamengo RJ Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botafogo RJ Flamengo RJ
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 13 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 0.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Serie A Betano
Botafogo RJ vs Flamengo RJ
0:3
Feb 15, 2026 Carioca
Botafogo RJ vs Flamengo RJ
1:2
Oct 15, 2025 Serie A Betano
Botafogo RJ vs Flamengo RJ
0:3
May 18, 2025 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Botafogo RJ
0:0
Feb 13, 2025 Carioca
Flamengo RJ vs Botafogo RJ
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botafogo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Barboza A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Flamengo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Paqueta
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pulgar E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo RJ 15 / 100
Flamengo RJ 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botafogo RJ Flamengo RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FLA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo RJ found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (25 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Botafogo RJ remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Flamengo RJ conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Botafogo RJ VS Flamengo RJ
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Botafogo RJ

(Home)
16 Jul
Botafogo RJ
2 : 1
Santos
30 May
Bahia
2 : 1
Botafogo RJ
27 May
Caracas
1 : 3
Botafogo RJ
23 May
Sao Paulo
1 : 1
Botafogo RJ
21 May
Independiente
0 : 3
Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 5

Flamengo RJ

(Away)
23 Jul
Chapecoense-SC
0 : 4
Flamengo RJ
17 Jul
Flamengo RJ
4 : 2
Olimpia Asuncion
11 Jul
Benfica
1 : 2
Flamengo RJ
08 Jul
Flamengo RJ
2 : 0
Lausanne
03 Jul
Flamengo RJ
2 : 2
River Plate
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Fluminense3
Bangu1
Vasco2
Volta Redonda1
Botafogo RJ1
Flamengo RJ2
Madureira2
Boavista1
Semi-finals
Fluminense2
Vasco1
Flamengo RJ11
Madureira0
Final
Fluminense0
Flamengo RJ1