Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Botev Ihtiman vs Septemvri Simitli

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Botev Ihtiman play Septemvri Simitli in the Third League - South-West. It looks like a close match. Recently, Botev Ihtiman averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Septemvri Simitli averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Botev Ihtiman won 4, Septemvri Simitli won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Botev Ihtiman and 1.56 for Septemvri Simitli. This points to a Botev Ihtiman double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Botev Ihtiman
19%
Draws
36%
Septemvri Simitli
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Botev Ihtiman

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Botev Ihtiman picked up more points recently compared to Septemvri Simitli.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Botev Ihtiman Clean Sheet 15%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botev Ihtiman Septemvri Simitli
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.6 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Third League - South-West
Botev Ihtiman vs Septemvri Simitli
1:0
Sep 5, 2025 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Botev Ihtiman
0:2
May 31, 2025 Third League - South-West
Botev Ihtiman vs Septemvri Simitli
2:2
Nov 16, 2024 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Botev Ihtiman
1:2
Mar 30, 2024 Third League - South-West
Botev Ihtiman vs Septemvri Simitli
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botev Ihtiman 44 / 100
Septemvri Simitli 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botev Ihtiman Septemvri Simitli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Botev Ihtiman or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Botev Ihtiman attacking → ← attacking Septemvri Simitli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botev Ihtiman scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Septemvri Simitli let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Botev Ihtiman went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Septemvri Simitli lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 43
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rilski Sportist34255458:2380
2Strumska Slava34205971:4565
3Slavia Sofia 2341761168:4457
4Botev Ihtiman341491153:4051
5Kyustendil341551449:5250
6CSKA Sofia III341551449:4350
7Oborishte Panagyurishte341471343:3749
8Balkan Botevgrad3413101150:4549
9Septemvri Sofia 2341391250:4348
10Septemvri Simitli341381341:4047
11Kostinbrod341451547:5147
12Pirin Razlog341361543:4845
13Bansko3411111239:4544
14Slivnishki Geroy341191440:4942
15Levski Sofia II341171630:4440
16Gotse Delchev341141943:7037
17Germaneya34462438:7518
18Bistritsa341151844:6238