Sport Picks

Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Hristo Botev

Arda

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Botev Plovdiv play Arda in the efbet League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Botev Plovdiv averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. Arda averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Botev Plovdiv won 2, Arda won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 26, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.31 for Arda. This points to a Botev Plovdiv double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Botev Plovdiv

19%

Draws

38%

Arda

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Botev Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Botev Plovdiv picked up more points recently compared to Arda.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Botev Plovdiv Clean Sheet 18%

Arda Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Botev Plovdiv	Arda
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	15	14
Draws	4	6
Losses	8	8
Goals Scored	1.7	1.36
Goals Conceded	0.78	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Club Friendly

Botev Plovdiv vs Arda

Possession: 42% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

May 12, 2026 efbet League

Botev Plovdiv vs Arda

Possession: 41% - 49% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Apr 26, 2026 efbet League

Arda vs Botev Plovdiv

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Dec 2, 2025 efbet League

Arda vs Botev Plovdiv

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

0:0

Aug 4, 2025 efbet League

Botev Plovdiv vs Arda

Possession: 45% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botev Plovdiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Meotti C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Huseynov C.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botev Plovdiv 42 / 100

Arda 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Botev Plovdiv Arda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Botev Plovdiv or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Botev Plovdiv attacking → ← attacking Arda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botev Plovdiv scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Arda let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Botev Plovdiv went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Arda lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 48

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
5	Lok. Plovdiv	36	14	13	9	36:41	55
6	Arda	36	15	9	12	42:34	54
7	Cherno More	36	14	12	10	40:34	54
8	Botev Plovdiv	36	13	7	16	49:45	46