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Spartak Varna

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Botev Plovdiv play Spartak Varna in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Botev Plovdiv averaged 1.77 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Spartak Varna averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Botev Plovdiv won 3, Spartak Varna won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.13 for Spartak Varna. This points to a Botev Plovdiv double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Botev Plovdiv

15%

Draws

31%

Spartak Varna

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Botev Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Botev Plovdiv picked up more points recently compared to Spartak Varna.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%

Botev Plovdiv Clean Sheet 21%

Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Botev Plovdiv	Spartak Varna
Matches Played	26	29
Wins	15	9
Draws	4	7
Losses	7	13
Goals Scored	1.77	0.93
Goals Conceded	0.73	1.45
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 efbet League

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Possession: 48% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

5:0

Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

Dec 13, 2025 Bulgarian Cup

Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

Possession: 40% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

0:2

Oct 24, 2025 efbet League

Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 4 - 0

3:2

May 18, 2025 efbet League

Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

Possession: 55% - 51% Cards: 0 - 4

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botev Plovdiv 53 / 100

Spartak Varna 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Botev Plovdiv Spartak Varna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Botev Plovdiv Win (1)

Secondary Pick Botev Plovdiv & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.2%

2.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Botev Plovdiv attacking → ← attacking Spartak Varna

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botev Plovdiv scored in 73% of their last 26 games.

Spartak Varna let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Botev Plovdiv went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Spartak Varna lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 34

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63