Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Boulogne vs Pau

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Bobichon A.
Assist: Dong K.
5'
Karamoko S.
31'
Sub
Briancon A. In: Kante
Out: Briancon A.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Boulogne
35%
Draws
36%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Boulogne.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 29%
Pau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Boulogne Pau
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 6 9
Draws 12 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.79 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Boulogne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Pau
0:3
May 7, 2020 Ligue 3
Pau vs Boulogne
0:0
Dec 20, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
0:0
Mar 21, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Boulogne Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Bobichon A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Versini G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Boulogne 38 / 100
Pau 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Boulogne Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Boulogne has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Boulogne's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Boulogne VS Pau
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Boulogne

(Home)
19 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 2
Nantes
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 1
Dijon
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Boulogne
1 : 1
Red Star
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Pau

(Away)
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
21 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Nancy
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)