Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Boulogne vs Pau

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Bobichon A.
Assist: Dong K.
5'
Karamoko S.
31'
Sub
Briancon A. In: Kante
Out: Briancon A.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Boulogne
17%
Draws
13%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Boulogne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Boulogne.
  • Win probability leans Boulogne's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 68%
Pau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Boulogne Pau
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 8 9
Draws 9 4
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Boulogne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Pau
0:3
May 7, 2020 Ligue 3
Pau vs Boulogne
0:0
Dec 20, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
0:0
Mar 21, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Boulogne Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Bobichon A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Versini G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Boulogne 77 / 100
Pau 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Boulogne Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Boulogne scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Pau has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Boulogne stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Boulogne VS Pau
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Boulogne

(Home)
31 Jul
Valenciennes
1 : 1
Boulogne
25 Jul
Boulogne
0 : 1
Rouen
24 Jul
Amiens SC
0 : 1
Boulogne
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
15 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Boulogne
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Pau

(Away)
01 Aug
Pau
1 : 2
Real Union
25 Jul
Real Sociedad B
4 : 0
Pau
21 Jul
Espanyol
4 : 0
Pau
17 Jul
Pau
3 : 0
Tarbes
11 Jul
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Pau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)