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Bourg Peronnas vs Bastia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Zaouai A.
Assist: Roncaglia A.
38'
Muro R.
43'
Garnier E.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Bourg Peronnas and Bastia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bastia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Bourg Peronnas
35%
Draws
46%
Bastia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bastia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Bastia haven't matched Bourg Peronnas's recent run of results.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Bastia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Bourg Peronnas Clean Sheet 18%
Bastia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourg Peronnas Bastia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 6 12
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.69 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Ligue 3
Bourg Peronnas vs Bastia
0:1
Feb 13, 2021 Ligue 3
Bourg Peronnas vs Bastia
1:3
Sep 11, 2020 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Bourg Peronnas
3:1
Jan 12, 2018 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Bourg Peronnas
0:0
Aug 4, 2017 Ligue 2
Bourg Peronnas vs Bastia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourg Peronnas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Zaouai A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourg Peronnas 15 / 100
Bastia 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourg Peronnas Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bastia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bastia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Bourg Peronnas's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Bourg Peronnas stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bourg Peronnas VS Bastia
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourg Peronnas

(Home)
03 Oct
Rouen
2 : 0
Bourg Peronnas
26 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
1 : 1
Concarneau
19 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 1
Bourg Peronnas
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
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Bastia

(Away)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)