Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade Marcel-Verchere

Orleans

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bourg Peronnas play Orleans in the National 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bourg Peronnas averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Orleans averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Bourg Peronnas won 0, Orleans won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 20, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Bourg Peronnas and 1.19 for Orleans. This points to a Orleans double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Bourg Peronnas

20%

Draws

50%

Orleans

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Orleans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Bourg Peronnas picked up more points recently compared to Orleans.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Bourg Peronnas Clean Sheet 20%

Orleans Clean Sheet 21%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Bourg Peronnas	Orleans
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	10	14
Draws	4	8
Losses	15	7
Goals Scored	0.93	1.55
Goals Conceded	1.48	1.24
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Ligue 3

Bourg Peronnas vs Orleans

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

0:3

Sep 12, 2025 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Bourg Peronnas

Possession: 60% - 41% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Mar 21, 2025 Ligue 3

Bourg Peronnas vs Orleans

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Oct 23, 2024 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Bourg Peronnas

Possession: 41% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Apr 28, 2023 Ligue 3

Orleans vs Bourg Peronnas

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourg Peronnas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38

Avg xA / game 0.25

Orleans Compare

Top Goalscorer Sylla M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Legendre R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourg Peronnas 31 / 100

Orleans 49 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Bourg Peronnas Orleans

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Orleans or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bourg Peronnas attacking → ← attacking Orleans

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bourg Peronnas scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Orleans let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Bourg Peronnas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Orleans lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 50

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27