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Bourj vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Farhat H.
Assist: Haidar M.
49' Event
Mpacko Etame J.
Assist: Ezzeddine H.
78' Event
Al Haj A.
Assist: Zbib M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Bourj and Al Ahed finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bourj
44%
Draws
20%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahed come out ahead of Bourj on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Ahed have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Bourj Clean Sheet 22%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ahed
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 17 18
Draws 4 3
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0 1
Goals Conceded 0 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
1:4
Sep 21, 2024 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
1:3
May 26, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Bourj
2:3
Apr 5, 2024 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
0:1
Feb 7, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Bourj
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Khriess H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Farhat H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mpacko Etame J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 37 / 100
Al Ahed 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Bourj's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Al Ahed's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 33 matches.

Bourj has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Al Ahed
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourj

(Home)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
Page 1 of 7

Al Ahed

(Away)
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
12 Jul
Al Ansar
3 : 3
Al Ahed
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar21172253:953
2Nejmeh SC21144342:1046
3Al Ahed21131734:2240
4Jwayya SC21115531:1438
5Safa21113730:1736
6Al Hikma2193929:2730
7Al Sahel2176822:2127
8Al-Mabarrah2157912:3622
9Al Riyadi Abbasiyah21551116:3020
10Tadamon21381012:2617
11Racing2101204:611
12Bourj113178:2010
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)