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Bourj vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Farhat H.
Assist: Haidar M.
49' Event
Mpacko Etame J.
Assist: Ezzeddine H.
78' Event
Al Haj A.
Assist: Zbib M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Bourj and Al Ahed finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Bourj
20%
Draws
20%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bourj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bourj come out ahead of Al Ahed on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Ahed have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Bourj Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bourj Al Ahed
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
1:4
Sep 21, 2024 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
1:3
May 26, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Bourj
2:3
Apr 5, 2024 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ahed
0:1
Feb 7, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Bourj
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Khriess H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Farhat H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mpacko Etame J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bourj 32 / 100
Al Ahed 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bourj Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Bourj's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Al Ahed's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Difficult form: Al Ahed registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Al Ahed
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bourj

(Home)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
Page 1 of 6

Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)