Sport Picks
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
EFL Cup Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth 
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the EFL Cup. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Bournemouth have averaged 2.07 scored and 1.11 conceded recently, against Aston Villa's 2.07 scored and 1.43 conceded. Past meetings favor Aston Villa slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 7, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.94) point toward Bournemouth. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Bournemouth.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Aston Villa taking it.
- Aston Villa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Aston Villa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 10%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bournemouth | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 12 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.11 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
4:0
May 10, 2025 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
1:1
Apr 21, 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bournemouth 26 / 100
Aston Villa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bournemouth Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aston Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bournemouth's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Aston Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Bournemouth stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bournemouth VS Aston Villa
2.13 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Bournemouth
(Home) 22 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 AC Milan
18 Oct
Bournemouth
2 : 0 Sunderland
15 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Sturm Graz
10 Oct
Chelsea
5 : 1 Bournemouth
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1 Liverpool
Page 1 of 6
22 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 AC Milan
18 Oct
Bournemouth
2 : 0 Sunderland
15 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Sturm Graz
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1 Liverpool
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa
(Away) 21 Oct
Aston Villa
3 : 1 Viking
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd
0 : 1 Aston Villa
14 Oct
Aston Villa
6 : 0 Fenerbahce
10 Oct
Aston Villa
2 : 2 Brentford
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd
0 : 1 Aston Villa
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
