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Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense

Brazil Brazil

Copa FGF Estádio Bento Freitas, Pelotas
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa FGF. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Brasil de Pelotas have averaged 1.13 scored and 0.5 conceded recently, against Gramadense's 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded. Head-to-head, Brasil de Pelotas have won 0 to Gramadense's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 12, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 0.94) point toward Gramadense. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Brasil de Pelotas
39%
Draws
31%
Gramadense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Gramadense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Gramadense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 20%
Gramadense Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 11 11
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Copa FGF
Gramadense vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasil de Pelotas 31 / 100
Gramadense 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasil de Pelotas found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Brasil de Pelotas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Gramadense has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Brasil de Pelotas VS Gramadense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasil de Pelotas

(Home)
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
04 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RS
27 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
1 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
10 Jun
Brasil de Pelotas
4 : 0
Farroupilha
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Gramadense

(Away)
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
05 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 1
GE Bage
27 Jun
GE Bage
0 : 1
Gramadense
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
2 : 2
Gramadense
11 Jun
Gramadense
1 : 0
Monsoon
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Brasil de Pelotas2
Santa Cruz RS1
Gramadense2
GE Bage1
Final
Brasil de Pelotas0
Gramadense1