Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense

Brazil Brazil

Copa FGF Estádio Bento Freitas, Pelotas
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
2 - 2
11:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Matheus Streit
62' Event
Sausen Xavier M.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Gabriel Morbeck

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Brasil de Pelotas
35%
Draws
19%
Gramadense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Brasil de Pelotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Brasil de Pelotas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Brasil de Pelotas taking it.
  • Brasil de Pelotas have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 68%
Gramadense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 13 15
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.24 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2026 Gaucho 2
Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense
1:1
Jul 23, 2026 Copa FGF
Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense
2:2
Jul 12, 2026 Copa FGF
Gramadense vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasil de Pelotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Streit
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabriel Morbeck
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gramadense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasil de Pelotas 95 / 100
Gramadense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brasil de Pelotas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasil de Pelotas found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Gramadense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Brasil de Pelotas remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brasil de Pelotas VS Gramadense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasil de Pelotas

(Home)
27 Sept
GE Bage
4 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
23 Sept
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 0
GE Gloria
19 Sept
Pelotas
0 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
16 Sept
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 0
Santa Cruz RS
13 Sept
Uniao Frederiquense De Futebol
0 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
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Gramadense

(Away)
27 Sept
GE Gloria
1 : 1
Gramadense
23 Sept
Gramadense
1 : 1
Pelotas
19 Sept
GE Bage
1 : 1
Gramadense
16 Sept
Gramadense
0 : 0
Brasil de Farroupilha
12 Sept
Esportivo Bento Goncalves
3 : 1
Gramadense
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Brasil de Pelotas 2
Santa Cruz RS 1
Gramadense 2
GE Bage 1
Final
Brasil de Pelotas 2
Gramadense 3