Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brasilia FC (DF) vs Capital

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Valmir Campelo Bezerra (Bezerrao)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Brasilia FC (DF) play Capital in the Brasiliense. Capital are favorites here. Recently, Brasilia FC (DF) averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Capital averaged 1.76 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. In past meetings, Brasilia FC (DF) won 2, Capital won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 12, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Brasilia FC (DF) and 0.93 for Capital. This points to a Capital double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Brasilia FC (DF)
15%
Draws
56%
Capital
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Brasilia FC (DF) picked up more points recently compared to Capital.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Brasilia FC (DF) Clean Sheet 24%
Capital Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasilia FC (DF) Capital
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 17
Draws 3 10
Losses 18 6
Goals Scored 1.27 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.77 0.94

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Capital
1:3
Mar 5, 2023 Brasiliense
Capital vs Brasilia FC (DF)
3:1
Feb 5, 2022 Brasiliense
Capital vs Brasilia FC (DF)
4:1
Mar 7, 2014 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Capital
2:1
Apr 20, 2013 Brasiliense
Capital vs Brasilia FC (DF)
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasilia FC (DF) Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaua
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Capital Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alison Mira
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasilia FC (DF) 31 / 100
Capital 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasilia FC (DF) Capital

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capital Win (2)
Secondary Pick Capital & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Brasilia FC (DF) attacking → ← attacking Capital

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasilia FC (DF) scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Capital let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Brasilia FC (DF) went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Capital lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 61
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gama972015:423
2Samambaia962121:520
3Sobradinho952211:817
4Ceilandia951317:1216
5Capital943219:1015
6Brasiliense943213:715
7Real Brasilia931511:1310
8Paranoa92078:246
9Brasilia FC (DF)91084:193
10ARUC91083:203