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Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Thiago Magno
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2023 game between Brasilia FC (DF) and Santa Maria finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Maria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Brasilia FC (DF)
6%
Draws
4%
Santa Maria
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Brasilia FC (DF)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Brasilia FC (DF) carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Brasilia FC (DF)'s way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Brasilia FC (DF) Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasilia FC (DF) Santa Maria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 3 4
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 2.5 0.25
Goals Conceded 1 4.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 4.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2023 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
0:1
Feb 16, 2022 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:1
Feb 18, 2017 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:4
Feb 13, 2016 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
1:1
Mar 25, 2015 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Santa Maria
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasilia FC (DF) 95 / 100
Santa Maria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasilia FC (DF) Santa Maria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Maria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Santa Maria's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Brasilia FC (DF) scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Brasilia FC (DF) VS Santa Maria
2.5 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 4.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasilia FC (DF)

(Home)
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
0 : 2
Real Brasilia
12 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
1 : 3
Capital
07 Feb
Samambaia
4 : 1
Brasilia FC (DF)
31 Jan
ARUC
0 : 1
Brasilia FC (DF)
Page 1 of 6

Santa Maria

(Away)
10 Mar
Capital
7 : 1
Santa Maria
03 Mar
Santa Maria
0 : 4
Planaltina
25 Feb
Real Brasilia
1 : 0
Santa Maria
18 Feb
Santa Maria
0 : 5
Gama
08 Feb
Paranoa
1 : 0
Santa Maria
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Real Brasilia953113:618
2Brasiliense943218:915
3Capital943211:815
4Paranoa943214:1515
5Gama94238:614
6Ceilandia942312:1114
7Samambaia941416:1613
8Santa Maria92169:147
9Taguatinga921612:197
10Brasilia FC (DF)92169:187
Promotion - Brasiliense 2023 (Play Offs)