Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brasiliense vs Ceilandia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Venue Estadio Elmo Serejo Farias (Serejao), Taguatinga
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Jean Pyerre
33' Event
Tarta
86' Event
Johnatan Cardoso

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Brasiliense and Ceilandia finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Brasiliense
35%
Draws
28%
Ceilandia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Brasiliense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Ceilandia's 1.27 goals per match outpaces what Brasiliense have produced (1.13).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Brasiliense Clean Sheet 68%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasiliense Ceilandia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 12 9
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Ceilandia
2:3
Feb 2, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Brasiliense
0:1
Mar 7, 2024 Copa Verde
Brasiliense vs Ceilandia
1:0
Jan 20, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Brasiliense
2:1
Jun 24, 2023 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Brasiliense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasiliense Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean Pyerre
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tarta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnatan Cardoso
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasiliense 41 / 100
Ceilandia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasiliense Ceilandia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brasiliense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasiliense's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ceilandia conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Brasiliense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brasiliense VS Ceilandia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasiliense

(Home)
27 Jun
Goiatuba EC
1 : 0
Brasiliense
21 Jun
Brasiliense
0 : 0
Goiatuba EC
07 Jun
Primavera AC
1 : 2
Brasiliense
31 May
Brasiliense
1 : 1
Luverdense
24 May
Brasiliense
1 : 0
Inhumas
Page 1 of 6

Ceilandia

(Away)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)