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Bregalnica Stip vs Vardarski

North Macedonia North Macedonia

2. MFL 2024/2025 Gradski Stadion Štip
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bregalnica Stip play Vardarski in the 2. MFL 2024/2025. Bregalnica Stip are favorites here. Recently, Bregalnica Stip averaged 2.62 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. Vardarski averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. In past meetings, Bregalnica Stip won 2, Vardarski won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 4, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.54 for Bregalnica Stip and 0.81 for Vardarski. This points to a Bregalnica Stip double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

76%
Bregalnica Stip
15%
Draws
9%
Vardarski
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bregalnica Stip

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Bregalnica Stip picked up more points recently compared to Vardarski.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.54 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Bregalnica Stip Clean Sheet 26%
Vardarski Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bregalnica Stip Vardarski
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 26 3
Draws 4 2
Losses 4 25
Goals Scored 2.62 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.62 2.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2025 2. MFL
Bregalnica Stip vs Vardarski
2:0
Sep 25, 2024 2. MFL
Vardarski vs Bregalnica Stip
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bregalnica Stip 74 / 100
Vardarski 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bregalnica Stip Vardarski

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bregalnica Stip Win (1)
Secondary Pick Bregalnica Stip & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +11.7%
1.47
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bregalnica Stip attacking → ← attacking Vardarski

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bregalnica Stip scored in 82% of their last 34 games.

Vardarski let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Bregalnica Stip went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Vardarski lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

82 Points in last 5 11
3.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Makedonija GP30198347:865
2Arsimi30205555:2465
3Bashkimi30206452:2263
4Bregalnica Stip30177638:2358
5Detonit Plackovica301014640:3044
6Kamenica Sasa301261248:4442
7Ohrid301261236:4042
8Belasica Strumica301011935:3041
9Kozuf Gevgelija30912932:2739
10FK Skopje30912932:3239
11Novaci30981331:3635
12Pobeda30891328:3433
13Vardar Negotino301031734:5233
14Osogovo30781529:4429
15Borec30452122:5417
16Vardarski30322521:8011