Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Breno vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Maglione R.
31' Event
Tagliani M.
58' Event
Monza E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Breno
11%
Draws
9%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Breno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Breno.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Breno taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Breno Clean Sheet 68%
Pavia Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno Pavia
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 8 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
2:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Breno
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Breno Compare

Top Goalscorer Tagliani M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Papa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Maglione R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Monza E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 86 / 100
Pavia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Pavia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 33 matches.

Breno has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Pavia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS Pavia
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)