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Breno vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Maglione R.
31' Event
Tagliani M.
58' Event
Monza E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Breno
35%
Draws
29%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Breno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Breno average 0.97 goals a game right now, well clear of Pavia's 0.86.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Breno taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Breno Clean Sheet 20%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno Pavia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.97 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Pavia
2:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Breno
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Breno Compare

Top Goalscorer Tagliani M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Papa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Maglione R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Monza E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 36 / 100
Pavia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Breno stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Breno scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Pavia has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS Pavia
1 Goals Scored 1
1.43 Goals Conceded 2
86% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
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Pavia

(Away)
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)