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Brera Ilch vs Falcons

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League 2024/2025
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Match Events

14' Event
Lhagvasuren A.
21' Event
Marlon Santos
43' Event
Bathishig M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Brera Ilch and Falcons finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Brera Ilch
15%
Draws
64%
Falcons
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Brera Ilch haven't matched Falcons's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Falcons have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Brera Ilch Clean Sheet 10%
Falcons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brera Ilch Falcons
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 5 19
Draws 4 5
Losses 21 3
Goals Scored 1.67 3.37
Goals Conceded 2.7 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2025 Premier League
Brera Ilch vs Falcons
2:5
Mar 29, 2025 Premier League
Falcons vs Brera Ilch
2:0
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Brera Ilch vs Falcons
1:0
May 4, 2024 Premier League
Falcons vs Brera Ilch
6:1
Mar 2, 2024 Premier League
Brera Ilch vs Falcons
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brera Ilch Compare

Top Goalscorer Lhagvasuren A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Purevbaatar B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Falcons Compare

Top Goalscorer Marlon Santos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bathishig M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.3
Avg xA / game 2.02

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brera Ilch 30 / 100
Falcons 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brera Ilch Falcons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcons Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.80 goals as a typical output.

Brera Ilch scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Falcons let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Solid form: Brera Ilch remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brera Ilch VS Falcons
2 Goals Scored 3.75
3.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Brera Ilch

(Home)
19 Jul
Central Stallions
4 : 1
Brera Ilch
15 Jul
Brera Ilch
1 : 4
Khovd
09 Jul
Khaan Khuns-Erchim
3 : 5
Brera Ilch
06 Jul
Khangarid
3 : 1
Brera Ilch
01 Jul
Brera Ilch
0 : 1
Hunters
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Falcons

(Away)
01 Nov
Falcons
3 : 1
Ezra
29 Oct
Falcons
0 : 2
Manila Digger
26 Oct
Svay Rieng
3 : 0
Falcons
12 Oct
Khovd
0 : 2
Falcons
07 Oct
Khoromkhon
0 : 7
Falcons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Falcons 27 21 4 2 104:19 67
2 Khangarid 27 18 3 6 66:32 57
3 FC Ulaanbaatar 27 15 6 6 65:40 51
4 Deren 27 15 5 7 83:30 50
5 Khoromkhon 27 11 1 15 58:89 34
6 Khovd 27 9 5 13 72:61 32
7 Hunters 27 8 5 14 38:49 29
8 Khaan Khuns-Erchim 27 7 6 14 54:64 27
9 Central Stallions 27 7 1 19 31:156 22
10 Brera Ilch 27 4 4 19 43:74 16
Promotion - AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)