Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brest vs Marseille

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Ajorque L.
29' Event
Ajorque L.
Assist: Magnetti H.
46'
Sub
Vermeeren A. In: Aubameyang P.
Out: Vermeeren A.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Brest and Marseille finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brest.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Brest
20%
Draws
38%
Marseille
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brest

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Marseille carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Brest's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Brest Clean Sheet 13%
Marseille Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brest Marseille
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 3
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Ligue 1
Brest vs Marseille
2:0
Nov 8, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Brest
3:0
Apr 27, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Brest
4:1
Aug 17, 2024 Ligue 1
Brest vs Marseille
1:5
Feb 18, 2024 Ligue 1
Brest vs Marseille
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brest Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajorque L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Marseille Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brest 40 / 100
Marseille 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brest Marseille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Brest's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Marseille's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Brest has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Brest VS Marseille
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brest

(Home)
22 Jul
Brest
0 : 2
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
17 May
Brest
1 : 1
Angers
13 May
Brest
1 : 2
Strasbourg
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
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Marseille

(Away)
25 Jul
Marseille
0 : 3
Nice
17 May
Marseille
3 : 1
Rennes
10 May
Le Havre
0 : 1
Marseille
02 May
Nantes
3 : 0
Marseille
26 Apr
Marseille
1 : 1
Nice
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)