Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brighton vs Nottingham

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Amex Stadium, Brighton
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Gomez D.
Assist: Gross P.
13' Event
Gibbs-White M.
Assist: Igor Jesus
15' Event
Welbeck D.
Assist: Hinshelwood J.

AI Match Summary

Brighton in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Brighton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Brighton
28%
Draws
50%
Nottingham
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Nottingham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Brighton haven't matched Nottingham's recent run of results.
  • Nottingham are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Brighton Clean Sheet 17%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brighton Nottingham
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Brighton vs Nottingham
2:1
Nov 30, 2025 Premier League
Nottingham vs Brighton
0:2
Mar 29, 2025 FA Cup
Brighton vs Nottingham
0:1
Feb 1, 2025 Premier League
Nottingham vs Brighton
7:0
Sep 22, 2024 Premier League
Brighton vs Nottingham
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brighton Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Welbeck D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Nottingham Compare

Top Goalscorer Gibbs-White M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brighton 23 / 100
Nottingham 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brighton Nottingham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Brighton found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

Nottingham's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Brighton remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brighton VS Nottingham
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Brighton

(Home)
24 May
Brighton
0 : 3
Manchester United
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
09 May
Brighton
3 : 0
Wolves
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1
Brighton
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0
Chelsea
Page 1 of 6

Nottingham

(Away)
26 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1
Nottingham
22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0
Blackburn
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2
Nottingham
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1
Bournemouth
17 May
Manchester United
3 : 2
Nottingham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)