Sport Picks
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
NPL Queensland AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane 
Match Events
32'
32'
Thom N.
49'
49'
Donnelly-Fagan E.
49'
49'
Donnelly-Fagan E.
AI Match Summary
The NPL Queensland game between Brisbane Roar U23 and Moreton City Excelsior finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brisbane Roar U23.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Brisbane Roar U23
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Moreton City Excelsior come out ahead of Brisbane Roar U23 on wins alone.
- Model gives Brisbane Roar U23 a 43% chance of winning this.
- Regular NPL Queensland form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Brisbane Roar U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Brisbane Roar U23 | Moreton City Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 34 |
| Wins | 7 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 20 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 2.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.07 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 2, 2026 NPL Queensland
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior
2:0
Apr 25, 2026 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar U23
6:0
Jun 21, 2025 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar U23
1:1
Mar 22, 2025 NPL Queensland
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:2
Jun 2, 2024 NPL Queensland
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Brisbane Roar U23 Compare
Top Goalscorer Thom N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Morris A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Moreton City Excelsior Compare
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Brisbane Roar U23 38 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Brisbane Roar U23 Moreton City Excelsior
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Brisbane Roar U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Brisbane Roar U23's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Moreton City Excelsior let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.
Moreton City Excelsior lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Brisbane Roar U23 VS Moreton City Excelsior
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Brisbane Roar U23
(Home) 14 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
1 : 2 Gold Coast Knights SC
07 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 2 Brisbane Roar U23
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
19 Jul
Olympic FC
3 : 1 Brisbane Roar U23
10 Jul
Brisbane Roar U23
4 : 1 Rochedale
Page 1 of 6
14 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
1 : 2 Gold Coast Knights SC
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
10 Jul
Brisbane Roar U23
4 : 1 Rochedale
24 May
Brisbane Roar U23
1 : 3 Eastern Suburbs
15 May
Brisbane Roar U23
1 : 3 Queensland Lions
Page 1 of 3
Moreton City Excelsior
(Away) 05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
29 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 0 Gold Coast Knights SC
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
08 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
08 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
04 Jul
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 1 Moreton City Excelsior
28 Jun
Gold Coast Utd
0 : 1 Moreton City Excelsior
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queensland Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57:22 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49:27 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51:35 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights SC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46:32 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 47:48 | 34 |
| 6 | Wynnum Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34:35 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic FC | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 39:43 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United TFA FC | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 33:59 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 34:52 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast Utd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 26:39 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar U23 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 32:52 | 16 |
Promotion - NPL Queensland (Play Offs)
Relegation - Queensland Premier League (Main)
