Sport Picks

Australia

NPL Queensland AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane

Moreton City Excelsior

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Brisbane Roar U23 host Moreton City Excelsior in the NPL Queensland. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Brisbane Roar U23 have averaged 1.5 scored and 2.25 conceded recently, against Moreton City Excelsior's 2.38 scored and 2.13 conceded. Head-to-head, Brisbane Roar U23 have won 0 to Moreton City Excelsior's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 6:0. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 2.31) point toward Moreton City Excelsior. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Brisbane Roar U23

39%

Draws

31%

Moreton City Excelsior

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Moreton City Excelsior come out ahead of Brisbane Roar U23 on wins alone.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
Regular NPL Queensland form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Moreton City Excelsior have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 80%

Over 3.5 Goals 63%

Over 4.5 Goals 28%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%

Brisbane Roar U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Brisbane Roar U23	Moreton City Excelsior
Matches Played	29	39
Wins	6	22
Draws	5	7
Losses	18	10
Goals Scored	1.5	2.38
Goals Conceded	2.25	2.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 NPL Queensland

Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar U23

6:0

Jun 21, 2025 NPL Queensland

Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar U23

1:1

Mar 22, 2025 NPL Queensland

Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior

1:2

Jun 2, 2024 NPL Queensland

Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior

1:3

Mar 2, 2024 NPL Queensland

Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar U23

3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brisbane Roar U23 29 / 100

Moreton City Excelsior 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Brisbane Roar U23 Moreton City Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRI Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brisbane Roar U23 found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Moreton City Excelsior let in goals in 67% of their last 39 matches.

Brisbane Roar U23 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brisbane Roar U23 VS Moreton City Excelsior

1.5 Goals Scored 2.38

2.25 Goals Conceded 2.13

100% Over 1.5 75%

88% Over 2.5 75%

63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History