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Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia Australia

A-League 2025/2026 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Brisbane Roar Logo

Brisbane Roar

2 - 3
FT
Melbourne City Logo

Melbourne City

Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Vidic J.
61' Event
Younis M.
(Penalty)
61'
Sub
Nabbout A. In: Memeti M.
Out: Nabbout A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The A-League 2025/2026 game between Brisbane Roar and Melbourne City finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Melbourne City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Brisbane Roar
15%
Draws
42%
Melbourne City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Brisbane Roar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Melbourne City come out ahead of Brisbane Roar on wins alone.
  • Brisbane Roar are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Melbourne City have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Brisbane Roar Clean Sheet 14%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brisbane Roar Melbourne City
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.39 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
2:3
Jan 6, 2026 A-League
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
1:0
Oct 31, 2025 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
0:0
Apr 11, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
3:2
Jan 11, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brisbane Roar Compare

Top Goalscorer Vidic J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Salas Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Melbourne City Compare

Top Goalscorer Younis M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Memeti M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brisbane Roar 41 / 100
Melbourne City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brisbane Roar Melbourne City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brisbane Roar's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Melbourne City let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Melbourne City's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Brisbane Roar VS Melbourne City
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Brisbane Roar

(Home)
04 Sept
Olympic FC
3 : 4
Brisbane Roar
29 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 0
Brisbane Roar
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0
Brisbane Roar
09 Aug
Brisbane Roar
2 : 4
Sydney FC
30 Jul
Sydney Olympic
0 : 3
Brisbane Roar
Page 1 of 7

Melbourne City

(Away)
25 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
0 : 2
Melbourne City
11 Aug
Queensland Lions
2 : 0
Melbourne City
07 Aug
Melbourne City
0 : 2
Palermo
26 Jul
Weston Workers Bears
0 : 3
Melbourne City
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1
Melbourne City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Newcastle Jets 26 15 3 8 55:39 48
2 Adelaide Utd 26 12 7 7 46:36 43
3 Auckland FC 26 11 9 6 42:29 42
4 Melbourne Victory 26 11 7 8 44:33 40
5 Sydney FC 26 11 6 9 33:25 39
6 Melbourne City 26 10 8 8 33:33 38
7 Macarthur FC 26 9 7 10 37:44 34
8 Wellington Phoenix 26 9 6 11 36:48 33
9 Central Coast 26 8 8 10 35:42 32
10 Perth Glory 26 8 7 11 32:39 31
11 Brisbane Roar 26 6 8 12 27:36 26
12 Western Sydney Wanderers 26 5 6 15 27:43 21
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)