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Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W

Australia Australia

A-League Women Spencer Park
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Jale G.
Assist: Elliott M.
8'
Sub
Cuthbert R. In: Jansen B.
Out: Cuthbert R.
14' Event
Hayashi M.
Assist: Woods A.

AI Match Summary

The A-League Women game between Brisbane Roar W and Wellington Phoenix W finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brisbane Roar W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Brisbane Roar W
6%
Draws
4%
Wellington Phoenix W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Brisbane Roar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wellington Phoenix W come out ahead of Brisbane Roar W on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Brisbane Roar W taking it.
  • Regular A-League Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Brisbane Roar W Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Phoenix W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brisbane Roar W Wellington Phoenix W
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 2.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Brisbane Roar W
2:0
May 3, 2026 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Brisbane Roar W
3:0
Jan 3, 2026 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 A-League Women
Brisbane Roar W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brisbane Roar W Compare

Top Goalscorer Hayashi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brown D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Wellington Phoenix W Compare

Top Goalscorer Jale G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brisbane Roar W 83 / 100
Wellington Phoenix W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brisbane Roar W Wellington Phoenix W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brisbane Roar W scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Wellington Phoenix W conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Brisbane Roar W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brisbane Roar W VS Wellington Phoenix W
2 Goals Scored 1.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Melbourne City W-
TBD-
Canberra W1
Melbourne Victory W3
Wellington Phoenix W-
TBD-
Brisbane Roar W3
Adelaide W0
Semi-finals
Melbourne City W2
Melbourne Victory W0
Wellington Phoenix W3
Brisbane Roar W2
Final
Melbourne City W3
Wellington Phoenix W1