Bristol Rovers in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 5-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
Bristol Rovers
20%
Draws
30%
Tottenham U21
Draw rate projection: 20%Favored: Bristol Rovers
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
Form's been kind to Bristol Rovers lately — more wins on the board than Tottenham U21.
Bristol Rovers are the model's pick here, at 60%.
Bristol Rovers have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Tottenham U21, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals99%
Over 1.5 Goals88%
Over 2.5 Goals78%
Over 3.5 Goals31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)76.2%
Bristol Rovers Clean Sheet20%
Tottenham U21 Clean Sheet10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
Metric
Bristol Rovers
Tottenham U21
Matches Played
28
30
Wins
16
14
Draws
4
2
Losses
8
14
Goals Scored
1.79
1.97
Goals Conceded
1.14
1.97
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)
1.10
1.40
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2025EFL Trophy
Bristol RoversvsTottenham U21
5:4
Aug 20, 2024EFL Trophy
Bristol RoversvsTottenham U21
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bristol Rovers Compare
Top GoalscorerCavegn F.
2 Goals
Assists LeaderHarrison E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game1.35
Avg xA / game0.88
Tottenham U21 Compare
Top GoalscorerThompson T.
2 Goals
Assists LeaderWilliams-Barnett L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game1.03
Avg xA / game0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bristol Rovers58 / 100
Tottenham U2118 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bristol Rovers Tottenham U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary PickBRI Win (1)
Secondary PickOver 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score2:1
BTTS OutcomeYes (GG)
Over/Under PickOver 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bristol Rovers's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: Tottenham U21 conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 8.00 goals per match.
Bristol Rovers went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.