Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brown Adrogue vs Dep. Merlo

Argentina Argentina

Primera B Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla, Adrogue
Brown Adrogue Logo

Brown Adrogue

0 - 1
FT
Dep. Merlo Logo

Dep. Merlo

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Figueredo L.
42'
Sub
Pieres M. In: Visco A.
Out: Pieres M.
45'
Sandoval I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dep. Merlo in this Primera B matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dep. Merlo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Brown Adrogue
35%
Draws
32%
Dep. Merlo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Dep. Merlo have won more games recently than Brown Adrogue.
  • Model gives Brown Adrogue a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Brown Adrogue here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Brown Adrogue Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brown Adrogue Dep. Merlo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 10 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.62 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Primera B
Brown Adrogue vs Dep. Merlo
0:1
Aug 23, 2025 Primera B
Brown Adrogue vs Dep. Merlo
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Brown Adrogue
0:1
Aug 29, 2015 Primera B
Brown Adrogue vs Dep. Merlo
3:0
Apr 10, 2015 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Brown Adrogue
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brown Adrogue Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dep. Merlo Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brown Adrogue 46 / 100
Dep. Merlo 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brown Adrogue Dep. Merlo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Merlo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Brown Adrogue remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Brown Adrogue found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Brown Adrogue VS Dep. Merlo
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Brown Adrogue

(Home)
06 Sept
Villa San Carlos
0 : 0
Brown Adrogue
29 Aug
Brown Adrogue
1 : 1
CSD Liniers
25 Aug
Real Pilar
2 : 0
Brown Adrogue
21 Aug
Brown Adrogue
1 : 1
UAI Urquiza
15 Aug
Villa Dalmine
1 : 0
Brown Adrogue
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Dep. Merlo

(Away)
05 Sept
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0
Defensores Unidos
31 Aug
Comunicaciones
1 : 0
Dep. Merlo
26 Aug
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2
Dock Sud
22 Aug
Ituzaingo
0 : 0
Dep. Merlo
15 Aug
Deportivo Camioneros
0 : 0
Dep. Merlo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Excursionistas 34 19 8 7 51:28 65
2 Arsenal Sarandi 34 17 12 5 45:22 63
3 Deportivo Camioneros 34 17 12 5 40:20 63
4 Talleres Remedios Escalada 34 18 9 7 37:17 63
5 Villa Dalmine 34 16 12 6 35:17 60
6 Sportivo Italiano 34 16 10 8 41:26 58
7 Real Pilar 34 14 10 10 37:34 52
8 Comunicaciones 34 13 10 11 34:31 49
9 Deportivo Armenio 34 13 9 12 35:37 48
10 Laferrere 34 12 11 11 41:44 47
11 Dock Sud 34 10 13 11 38:35 43
12 Argentino de Merlo 34 10 11 13 30:34 41
13 San Martin Burzaco 34 9 14 11 31:36 41
14 Dep. Merlo 34 9 13 12 34:48 40
15 Villa San Carlos 34 9 12 13 34:38 39
16 Argentino de Quilmes 34 8 13 13 28:36 37
17 CSD Liniers 34 8 13 13 27:35 37
18 Flandria 34 9 8 17 29:42 35
19 Defensores Unidos 34 7 13 14 28:36 34
20 Brown Adrogue 34 7 13 14 21:35 34
21 UAI Urquiza 34 4 19 11 17:29 31
22 Ituzaingo 34 1 11 22 20:53 14
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)