Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brown Adrogue vs Villa Dalmine

Argentina Argentina

Primera B Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Brown Adrogue play Villa Dalmine in the Primera B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Brown Adrogue averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Villa Dalmine averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.68 conceded. In past meetings, Brown Adrogue won 3, Villa Dalmine won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 3, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Brown Adrogue and 1.13 for Villa Dalmine. This points to a Villa Dalmine double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Brown Adrogue
24%
Draws
47%
Villa Dalmine
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Villa Dalmine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Brown Adrogue picked up more points recently compared to Villa Dalmine.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 56%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 18%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Brown Adrogue Clean Sheet 21%
Villa Dalmine Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 53%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brown Adrogue Villa Dalmine
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 15
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 0.82 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Primera B
Brown Adrogue vs Villa Dalmine
1:4
Nov 2, 2025 Primera B
Villa Dalmine vs Brown Adrogue
1:0
Jun 7, 2025 Primera B
Brown Adrogue vs Villa Dalmine
4:1
Aug 26, 2023 Primera Nacional
Villa Dalmine vs Brown Adrogue
0:1
Apr 15, 2023 Primera Nacional
Brown Adrogue vs Villa Dalmine
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brown Adrogue Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardozo D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Villa Dalmine Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Agorreca N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brown Adrogue 30 / 100
Villa Dalmine 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brown Adrogue Villa Dalmine

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villa Dalmine or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +25.1%
4.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Brown Adrogue attacking → ← attacking Villa Dalmine

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brown Adrogue scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Villa Dalmine let in goals in 50% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Brown Adrogue went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Villa Dalmine lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 53
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Excursionistas23136434:1545
2Talleres Remedios Escalada23136426:1045
3Arsenal Sarandi23128333:1744
4Villa Dalmine23127428:1343
5Deportivo Camioneros23118427:1541
6Sportivo Italiano2398623:2035
7Real Pilar2397725:2434
8Deportivo Armenio2395925:2732
9San Martin Burzaco23710623:2031
10Comunicaciones2387826:2531
11Argentino de Merlo2387821:2131
12Laferrere2387825:2931
13Dep. Merlo2387827:3531
14Dock Sud2369824:2227
15Argentino de Quilmes2369824:2527
16CSD Liniers2368916:2326
17Defensores Unidos2359919:2424
18Brown Adrogue23581016:2723
19UAI Urquiza23313712:2022
20Flandria23641318:3022
21Villa San Carlos23491024:3021
22Ituzaingo23161617:419