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BumProm Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Belarusian Cup SDYuShOR-6 Stadium, Gomel
BumProm Gomel Logo

BumProm Gomel

Sat, Jul 18, 2026
0 - 1
03:30 PM
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Logo

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sidorenko K.
27'
Tkachenko V.
46'
Sub
Kaplenko N. In: Lovets Y.
Out: Kaplenko N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
BumProm Gomel
35%
Draws
19%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: BumProm Gomel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • BumProm Gomel have won more games recently than Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on BumProm Gomel taking it.
  • BumProm Gomel have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Arsenal Dzerzhinsk here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
BumProm Gomel Clean Sheet 18%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BumProm Gomel Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.79 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Belarusian Cup
BumProm Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:1
Aug 27, 2023 Pershaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs BumProm Gomel
1:0
Apr 23, 2023 Pershaya Liga
BumProm Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BumProm Gomel 85 / 100
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BumProm Gomel Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BumProm Gomel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: BumProm Gomel scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

BumProm Gomel has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

BumProm Gomel VS Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BumProm Gomel

(Home)
10 Oct
Soligorsk
3 : 1
BumProm Gomel
04 Oct
BumProm Gomel
2 : 1
FC Minsk 2
27 Sept
Osipovichi
3 : 3
BumProm Gomel
19 Sept
BumProm Gomel
4 : 0
FK Lida
13 Sept
Niva Dolbizno
2 : 1
BumProm Gomel
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

(Away)
09 Oct
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 1
Dynamo Brest
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
12 Sept
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 0
FK Baranovici
07 Sept
Isloch Minsk
1 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Shchuchyn 3
FK Lida 4
TBD -
Zhodino -
BGU Minsk 0
Osipovichi 2
TBD -
Dnepr Mogilev -
Technolog Mogilev 0
FC Slonim 6
TBD -
Isloch Minsk -
Polotsk 0
Uni X Labs 2
TBD -
FK Baranovici -
Bobovnya 0
BumProm Gomel 2
TBD -
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk -
Leskhoz 0
Soligorsk 3
TBD -
Neman -
Drut Belynichi 0
Orsha 7
TBD -
Naftan -
Urozhaynaya 0
Molodechno 3
TBD -
BATE -
Gazovik Vitebsk 1
Volna Pinsk 4
TBD -
Slavia Mozyr -
Stanles Pinsk 1
Krumkachy 4
TBD -
Dynamo Brest -
Neman Mosty 1
Niva Dolbizno 4
TBD -
FC Gomel -
Krechet 0
Ostrovets 8
TBD -
Vitebsk -
Ivatsevichi 1
Slutsk 3
TBD -
Din. Minsk -
Minskoe More 0
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
TBD -
ML Vitebsk -
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Nadezhda Baranovici 0
TBD -
Belshina -
Vertical Kalinkovichi 0
Smorgon 7
TBD -
FC Minsk -
1/16-finals
FK Lida 0
Zhodino 4
Osipovichi 1
Dnepr Mogilev 3
FC Slonim 0
Isloch Minsk 1
Uni X Labs 1
FK Baranovici 4
BumProm Gomel 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1
Soligorsk 1
Neman 2
Orsha 3
Naftan 2
Molodechno 1
BATE 4
Volna Pinsk 0
Slavia Mozyr 5
Krumkachy 0
Dynamo Brest 5
Niva Dolbizno 2
FC Gomel 3
Ostrovets 2
Vitebsk 3
Slutsk 0
Din. Minsk 2
SKA-1938 Minsk 3
ML Vitebsk 5
Viktoria Maryina Gorka 1
Belshina 8
Smorgon 3
FC Minsk 4
1/8-finals
Zhodino 1
Dnepr Mogilev 2
Isloch Minsk 1
FK Baranovici 2
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2
Neman 3
Orsha -
BATE -
Slavia Mozyr 2
Dynamo Brest 1
FC Gomel 1
Vitebsk 2
Din. Minsk -
ML Vitebsk -
Belshina 1
FC Minsk 2
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -