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Burgess Hill vs Welling

England England

Isthmian League Premier Division 2025/2026
Burgess Hill Logo

Burgess Hill

2 - 1
FT
Welling Logo

Welling

Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Smith S.
90' Event
Pope B.
90' Event
Whelpdale Ch.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Isthmian League Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Burgess Hill and Welling finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burgess Hill.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Burgess Hill
35%
Draws
34%
Welling
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Welling carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Burgess Hill Clean Sheet 15%
Welling Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burgess Hill Welling
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 16
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.66 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Isthmian League Premier Division
Burgess Hill vs Welling
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Isthmian League Premier Division
Welling vs Burgess Hill
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burgess Hill Compare

Top Goalscorer Pope B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Whelpdale Ch.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Welling Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burgess Hill 35 / 100
Welling 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burgess Hill Welling

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Welling Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burgess Hill went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Burgess Hill scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Welling's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Burgess Hill VS Welling
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Burgess Hill

(Home)
15 Sept
Jersey Bulls
1 : 3
Burgess Hill
12 Sept
Burgess Hill
2 : 2
Ramsgate
05 Sept
Burgess Hill
0 : 0
Jersey Bulls
31 Aug
Whitehawk
1 : 1
Burgess Hill
28 Aug
Burgess Hill
2 : 1
Dartford
Page 1 of 6

Welling

(Away)
15 Sept
Welling
2 : 0
Cheshunt
12 Sept
Welling
4 : 1
Wingate & Finchley
08 Sept
Welling
2 : 1
Faversham
05 Sept
Faversham
1 : 1
Welling
31 Aug
Cray Wanderers
4 : 1
Welling
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folkestone 42 29 9 4 102:40 96
2 Aveley 42 24 12 6 90:51 84
3 Billericay 42 24 10 8 81:48 82
4 Chatham 42 24 7 11 83:35 79
5 Brentwood 42 24 6 12 84:66 78
6 Dartford 42 20 12 10 81:55 72
7 Cray Wanderers 42 17 16 9 79:71 67
8 Burgess Hill 42 20 7 15 76:81 67
9 Dulwich Hamlet 42 17 11 14 61:53 62
10 Ramsgate 42 15 12 15 73:68 57
11 St. Albans 42 16 8 18 71:59 56
12 Chichester City 42 14 13 15 57:63 55
13 Cheshunt 42 12 14 16 65:70 50
14 Whitehawk 42 12 13 17 58:72 49
15 Welling 42 15 3 24 54:75 48
16 Wingate & Finchley 42 12 10 20 55:67 46
17 Lewes 42 13 7 22 47:83 46
18 Carshalton 42 10 14 18 61:73 44
19 Cray Valley 42 11 9 22 54:80 42
20 Hashtag 42 11 9 22 60:87 42
21 Potters 42 9 3 30 46:94 30
22 Canvey Island 42 6 9 27 40:87 27
Promotion - National League South (Main)
Promotion - Isthmian League Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)