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Burnie United vs Somerset

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Tasmania Northern Championship
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AI Match Summary

The Tasmania Northern Championship game between Burnie United and Somerset finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Somerset.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Burnie United
15%
Draws
28%
Somerset
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burnie United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Burnie United haven't matched Somerset's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Burnie United's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Somerset have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Burnie United Clean Sheet 10%
Somerset Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burnie United Somerset
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 2 2
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 2.3 2.1
Goals Conceded 3.87 2.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
2:0
May 30, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Burnie United vs Somerset
0:5
Mar 21, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
3:1
Aug 23, 2025 Tasmania Northern Championship
Burnie United vs Somerset
0:4
Jun 28, 2025 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burnie United 83 / 100
Somerset 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burnie United Somerset

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burnie United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Burnie United found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Somerset conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Somerset's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Burnie United VS Somerset
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
4 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Burnie United

(Home)
29 Aug
Riverside Olympic U21
0 : 3
Burnie United
22 Aug
Burnie United
3 : 0
Launceston City U21
15 Aug
Burnie United
0 : 2
Ulverstone U21
08 Aug
Burnie United
4 : 10
Northern Rangers
01 Aug
Somerset
2 : 0
Burnie United
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Somerset

(Away)
29 Aug
Launceston City U21
2 : 0
Somerset
22 Aug
Somerset
0 : 8
Devonport U21
15 Aug
Somerset
0 : 11
Northern Rangers
08 Aug
Ulverstone U21
2 : 0
Somerset
01 Aug
Somerset
2 : 0
Burnie United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Rangers 21 20 0 1 130:24 60
2 Devonport U21 21 16 2 3 107:27 50
3 Ulverstone U21 20 11 3 6 49:38 36
4 Launceston City U21 20 9 0 11 32:39 27
5 Somerset 20 7 2 11 40:59 23
6 Burnie United 21 7 2 12 52:79 23
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 5 0 15 28:76 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 2 1 18 19:115 7
Promotion - NPL Tasmania 2027 (Main)