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Burnley vs Brentford

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Turf Moor
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Damsgaard M.
Assist: Ouattara Da.
25' Event
Thiago I.
Assist: Damsgaard M.
34' Event
Schade K.

AI Match Summary

Brentford in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Brentford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Burnley
33%
Draws
40%
Brentford
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Brentford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Brentford have won more games recently than Burnley.
  • Win probability leans Brentford's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Brentford have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Burnley Clean Sheet 13%
Brentford Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burnley Brentford
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 2 11
Draws 10 10
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Burnley vs Brentford
3:4
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Brentford vs Burnley
3:1
Mar 16, 2024 Premier League
Burnley vs Brentford
2:1
Oct 21, 2023 Premier League
Brentford vs Burnley
3:0
Mar 12, 2022 Premier League
Brentford vs Burnley
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burnley Compare

Top Goalscorer Anthony J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Flemming Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Brentford Compare

Top Goalscorer Damsgaard M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burnley 27 / 100
Brentford 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burnley Brentford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Burnley found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Brentford has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Burnley remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Burnley VS Brentford
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820