Sport Picks
Match Events
23'
23'
Ugochukwu L.
30'
30'
Colwill J.
Assist: Chambers C.
34'
34'
Edwards M.
AI Match Summary
Cardiff in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cardiff
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Cardiff have won more games recently than Burnley.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Cardiff arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Burnley, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Burnley Clean Sheet 14%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 2 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 18 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 23, 2025 EFL Cup
Burnley vs Cardiff
1:2
Mar 4, 2025 Championship
Cardiff vs Burnley
1:2
Aug 17, 2024 Championship
Burnley vs Cardiff
5:0
May 8, 2023 Championship
Burnley vs Cardiff
3:0
Oct 1, 2022 Championship
Cardiff vs Burnley
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Flemming Z.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Colwill J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Robinson C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley 31 / 100
Cardiff 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley Cardiff
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cardiff Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Cardiff conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Burnley scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Burnley has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Burnley VS Cardiff
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Burnley
(Home) 19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Wrexham
1 : 1 Burnley
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
16 Aug
Burnley
2 : 2 West Ham
08 Aug
Burnley
2 : 1 Notts County
Page 1 of 3
Cardiff
(Away) 19 Sept
Cardiff
3 : 1 Charlton
12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0 Cardiff
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0 Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1 Cardiff
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0 Cardiff
05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0 Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1 Cardiff
22 Aug
Derby
2 : 2 Cardiff
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5 Cardiff
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
