Sport Picks

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Burton vs Derby

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Shade T.

AI Match Summary

Burton in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Burton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Burton
30%
Draws
31%
Derby
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Burton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Derby have won more games recently than Burton.
  • Win probability leans Burton's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Burton Clean Sheet 17%
Derby Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burton Derby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 13
Draws 12 2
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Burton vs Derby
1:0
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Burton vs Derby
2:1
Jan 15, 2024 League One
Derby vs Burton
3:2
Aug 12, 2023 League One
Burton vs Derby
0:3
Apr 22, 2023 League One
Derby vs Burton
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burton Compare

Top Goalscorer Shade T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Derby Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burton 41 / 100
Derby 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burton Derby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burton scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Derby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Burton remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Burton VS Derby
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Burton

(Home)
15 Aug
Burton
1 : 1
Stevenage
08 Aug
Burton
1 : 2
Blackburn
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0
Derby
28 Jul
Solihull Moors
1 : 1
Burton
22 Jul
Burton
0 : 1
Birmingham
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Derby

(Away)
15 Aug
Charlton
2 : 1
Derby
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2
Lincoln City
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1
Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0
Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3
Derby
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