Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Burton vs Exeter

England England

League One 2025/2026 Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Niskanen I.
46'
Sub
Cole R. In: Aitchison J.
Out: Cole R.
49'
Sub
Chauke K. In: Evans G.
Out: Chauke K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this League One 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Burton
39%
Draws
30%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Exeter at 1.5 per game, Burton at 0.75.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular League One 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Burton Clean Sheet 19%
Exeter Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burton Exeter
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 11 11
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 League One
Burton vs Exeter
1:1
Mar 3, 2026 League One
Exeter vs Burton
1:1
Apr 18, 2025 League One
Exeter vs Burton
0:0
Dec 21, 2024 League One
Burton vs Exeter
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 League One
Exeter vs Burton
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burton Compare

Top Goalscorer Moon J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Niskanen I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burton 32 / 100
Exeter 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burton Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EXE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Burton scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Exeter's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Burton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burton VS Exeter
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Burton

(Home)
28 Jul
Solihull Moors
1 : 1
Burton
22 Jul
Burton
0 : 1
Birmingham
18 Jul
Burton
0 : 3
Leicester
11 Jul
Alfreton
0 : 0
Burton
02 May
Leyton Orient
2 : 2
Burton
Page 1 of 6

Exeter

(Away)
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2
Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0
Exeter
02 May
Exeter
1 : 2
Bradford City
25 Apr
Burton
1 : 1
Exeter
18 Apr
Exeter
3 : 3
Stockport County
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)