Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Malawi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Burundi play Malawi in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Burundi averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Malawi averaged 0.81 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Burundi won 1, Malawi won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 14, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Burundi and 1.25 for Malawi. This points to a Burundi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Burundi

17%

Draws

35%

Malawi

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Burundi picked up more points recently compared to Malawi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 56%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%

Burundi Clean Sheet 19%

Malawi Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 50%

Second Half Goal 53%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Burundi	Malawi
Matches Played	28	31
Wins	9	8
Draws	4	6
Losses	15	17
Goals Scored	1.14	0.81
Goals Conceded	1.29	1.16
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Malawi

Possession: 44% - 45% Cards: 4 - 1

0:0

Sep 5, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs Burundi

Possession: 55% - 46% Cards: 2 - 0

2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burundi 47 / 100

Malawi 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Burundi Malawi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Burundi or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Burundi attacking → ← attacking Malawi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burundi scored in 43% of their last 28 games.

Malawi let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Burundi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Malawi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 30

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4