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Burundi vs Malawi

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan
Burundi Logo

Burundi

0 - 0
FT
Malawi Logo

Malawi

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Singo Y.
35'
Chembezi D.
61'
Sub
Chirwa G. In: Njaliwa L.
Out: Chirwa G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Burundi
15%
Draws
34%
Malawi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Burundi come out ahead of Malawi on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Burundi taking it.
  • Burundi have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%
Malawi Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burundi Malawi
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.14 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Malawi
0:0
Sep 5, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi vs Burundi
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burundi 59 / 100
Malawi 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burundi Malawi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malawi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Malawi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Burundi's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Burundi VS Malawi
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Burundi

(Home)
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0
Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1
Kenya
Page 1 of 6

Malawi

(Away)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)