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Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League 2025 Buxoro Arena
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AI Match Summary

Buxoro play Neftchi Fargona in the Super League 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Buxoro averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. Neftchi Fargona averaged 1.81 goals scored and 0.69 conceded. In past meetings, Buxoro won 0, Neftchi Fargona won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Nov 7, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Buxoro and 1.63 for Neftchi Fargona. This points to a Neftchi Fargona double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Buxoro
30%
Draws
44%
Neftchi Fargona
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Buxoro picked up more points recently compared to Neftchi Fargona.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 14%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buxoro Neftchi Fargona
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 13 24
Draws 8 3
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.24 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 7, 2025 Super League
Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona
1:1
Jun 20, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
1:0
Sep 27, 2023 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
3:0
Apr 21, 2023 Super League
Buxoro vs Neftchi Fargona
2:2
Nov 14, 2021 Pro Liga
Neftchi Fargona vs Buxoro
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buxoro Compare

Top Goalscorer Begic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Neftchi Fargona Compare

Top Goalscorer Jovovic V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buxoro 26 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buxoro Neftchi Fargona

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Neftchi Fargona or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +44.6%
5.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Buxoro attacking → ← attacking Neftchi Fargona

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Buxoro scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Neftchi Fargona let in goals in 50% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Buxoro went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Neftchi Fargona lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 75
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Neftchi Fargona30197449:2464
2Pakhtakor30186659:2360
3Nasaf Qarshi301611351:2359
4Din. Samarkand301610447:3058
5Bunyodkor301310748:4049
6OKMK301461044:3448
7Navbahor Namangan3010101041:3740
8Sogdiana301071337:3737
9Qizilqum30991228:4436
10Termez Surkhon30981326:3035
11Andijan30981339:5135
12Kokand 191230971424:3934
13Mashal Muborak30861622:4830
14Buxoro30691530:4927
15Xorazm Urganch30761733:3927
16Shortan Guzor30381927:5717