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Buxton vs Bedford

England England

National League North 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Johnston J.
30'
Brown E.
40' Event
Mee A.

AI Match Summary

The National League North 2025/2026 game between Buxton and Bedford finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buxton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Buxton
15%
Draws
26%
Bedford
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Buxton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Bedford haven't matched Buxton's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Buxton's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Bedford have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Buxton Clean Sheet 20%
Bedford Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buxton Bedford
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 3 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.7 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 National League North
Bedford vs Buxton
2:1
Mar 21, 2026 National League North
Buxton vs Bedford
3:0
Nov 11, 2025 National League North
Bedford vs Buxton
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buxton Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnston J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mee A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Bedford Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buxton 49 / 100
Bedford 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buxton Bedford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Buxton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Buxton scored in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Bedford's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Buxton remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Buxton VS Bedford
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Buxton

(Home)
22 Aug
Buxton
1 : 2
Hebburn Town
18 Aug
Bedford
2 : 1
Buxton
15 Aug
Southport
1 : 1
Buxton
08 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1
Hereford
01 Aug
Warrington Town
1 : 2
Buxton
Page 1 of 6

Bedford

(Away)
22 Aug
Southport
4 : 1
Bedford
18 Aug
Bedford
2 : 1
Buxton
15 Aug
Bedford
2 : 3
Darlington FC
08 Aug
Oxford City
1 : 0
Bedford
01 Aug
Kettering
1 : 0
Bedford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AFC Fylde 46 32 4 10 112:51 100
2 South Shields 46 28 11 7 99:43 95
3 Kidderminster 46 25 12 9 74:51 87
4 Macclesfield 46 24 7 15 81:68 79
5 Buxton 46 22 7 17 83:61 73
6 Scarborough Athletic 46 19 16 11 61:52 73
7 Chester 46 20 13 13 66:64 73
8 Merthyr Town 46 22 4 20 95:86 70
9 Darlington FC 46 20 9 17 78:68 69
10 Spennymoor 46 19 11 16 62:69 68
11 Telford 46 17 14 15 85:65 65
12 Marine 46 18 8 20 62:72 62
13 Radcliffe 46 18 6 22 76:83 60
14 Southport 46 16 12 18 64:71 60
15 Chorley 46 15 12 19 66:65 57
16 Worksop 46 16 9 21 66:74 57
17 Oxford City 46 15 11 20 62:67 56
18 Bedford 46 13 14 19 66:77 53
19 King’s Lynn 46 12 16 18 56:64 52
20 Hereford 46 14 10 22 64:79 52
21 Curzon Ashton 46 13 13 20 67:88 52
22 Alfreton 46 12 14 20 49:82 50
23 Peterborough Sports 46 10 9 27 51:96 39
24 Leamington 46 7 8 31 41:90 29
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)