Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Central Esp.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Cambon A.
39'
Aleman B.
41'
Suarez D.

AI Match Summary

CA Cerro in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
CA Cerro
35%
Draws
32%
Central Esp.
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Central Esp. lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Central Esp. taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 20%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Central Esp.
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.77 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Central Esp.
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs CA Cerro
3:1
Aug 5, 2022 Segunda Division
CA Cerro vs Central Esp.
2:0
May 14, 2022 Segunda Division
Central Esp. vs CA Cerro
1:2
Sep 28, 2021 Segunda Division
CA Cerro vs Central Esp.
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Cambon A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Central Esp. Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 28 / 100
Central Esp. 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Central Esp.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Central Esp. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Central Esp.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: CA Cerro stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Central Esp.
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
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Central Esp.

(Away)
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
02 Sept
Central Esp.
3 : 0
Juventud
28 Aug
Wanderers
3 : 0
Central Esp.
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)