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CA Cerro vs Rocha

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Coelho D.
78' Event
Caceres S.
90' Event
Coelho D.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2021 game between CA Cerro and Rocha finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
CA Cerro
15%
Draws
42%
Rocha
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • CA Cerro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans CA Cerro's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%
Rocha Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Rocha
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 3
Losses 15 19
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 24, 2021 Segunda Division
CA Cerro vs Rocha
3:0
Aug 12, 2021 Segunda Division
Rocha vs CA Cerro
1:3
Apr 5, 2006 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Rocha
3:0
Sep 24, 2005 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Rocha vs CA Cerro
4:1
Jun 12, 2005 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Rocha vs CA Cerro
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Coelho D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Caceres S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Rocha Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 68 / 100
Rocha 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Rocha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Cerro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

CA Cerro found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Rocha has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Away concern: Rocha has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
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Rocha

(Away)
11 Aug
Potencia
2 : 0
Rocha
21 Sept
Lavalleja (Minas)
:
Rocha
23 Aug
Rocha
0 : 3
Rentistas
03 Aug
Rocha
2 : 1
Huracan Buceo
20 Jul
Rocha
2 : 0
Paso de la Arena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albion 22 13 5 4 31:18 44
2 Danubio 22 12 5 5 24:14 41
3 Racing Montevideo 22 10 8 4 27:16 38
4 Defensor Sp. 22 11 4 7 33:21 37
5 CA Cerro 22 10 7 5 26:20 37
6 Central Esp. 22 9 6 7 29:29 33
7 Juventud 22 8 5 9 27:27 29
8 Uruguay Montevideo FC 22 7 4 11 21:27 25
9 Atenas 22 5 9 8 20:17 24
10 Rampla Juniors 22 5 6 11 14:32 21
11 Villa Teresa 22 4 6 12 17:32 18
12 Rocha 22 4 3 15 20:36 15
Promotion - Primera Division 2022 (Apertura)
Promotion - Segunda Division 2021 (Play Offs)