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Cacereno vs Ursaria

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Diaz C.
28' Event
Diaz C.
45' Event
Vinuela F.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 game between Cacereno and Ursaria finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Cacereno
15%
Draws
32%
Ursaria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cacereno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Cacereno carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Cacereno are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Cacereno Clean Sheet 68%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cacereno Ursaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.29 0.97
Goals Conceded 1 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs Cacereno
1:0
Oct 28, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Cacereno vs Ursaria
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cacereno Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinuela F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lolo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Ursaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz C.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cacereno 68 / 100
Ursaria 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cacereno Ursaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cacereno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cacereno's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Ursaria has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Cacereno has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cacereno VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cacereno

(Home)
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
20 Sept
Cacereno
3 : 0
Arenas Getxo
16 Sept
Recreativo Huelva
2 : 1
Cacereno
13 Sept
Cacereno
1 : 0
Leonesa
09 Sept
Cacereno
2 : 0
UD San Pedro
Page 1 of 7

Ursaria

(Away)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)