Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
This match ends 3-2, with Caerau Ely advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Caerau Ely carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Caerau Ely a 59% chance of winning this.
- Caerau Ely have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caerau Ely, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Caerau Ely have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%
Cardiff Corries Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerau Ely | Cardiff Corries |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 42 | 32 |
| Wins | 23 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 2.48 | 1.78 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 30, 2026 Club Friendly
Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Corries
0:0
Jun 17, 2025 Club Friendly
Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Corries
6:0
Sep 15, 2023 FAW Welsh Cup
Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Corries
3:2
Mar 24, 2012 Division 1
Cardiff Corries vs Caerau Ely
0:2
Aug 17, 2011 Division 1
Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Corries
3:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caerau Ely 85 / 100
Cardiff Corries 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caerau Ely Cardiff Corries
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Caerau Ely scored in 86% of their last 42 games.
Cardiff Corries has conceded goals in 88% of their last 32 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Caerau Ely went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Caerau Ely VS Cardiff Corries
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Caerau Ely
(Home) 11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0 Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5 Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 9
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0 Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5 Pure Swansea
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
Page 1 of 5
Cardiff Corries
(Away) 30 Jun
Caerau Ely
0 : 0 Cardiff Corries
17 Jun
Caerau Ely
6 : 0 Cardiff Corries
19 Oct
Cardiff Corries
3 : 4 Afan Lido
21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
15 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Cardiff Corries
Page 1 of 7
30 Jun
Caerau Ely
0 : 0 Cardiff Corries
17 Jun
Caerau Ely
6 : 0 Cardiff Corries
15 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Cardiff Corries
09 Jun
Carmarthen Town
3 : 0 Cardiff Corries
17 Sept
Treowen
0 : 6 Cardiff Corries
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Penrhyncoch 2
Chirk AAA FC 4
Porthmadog 3
Glantraeth FC 0
Newport City 0
Abergavenny Town 2
Cardiff Airport 3
Cefn Fforest 1
Rhyl 1
Menai Bridge Tigers 2
Tregaron Turfs 2
Llanuwchllyn 10
Corwen 0
Bow Street 4
TBD -
Buckley -
Penparcau FC 0
Cefn Albion 1
Holyhead 0
Bangor 1876 4
Cerrigydrudion 2
Denbigh 4
TBD -
Flint Town -
Connahs Q. -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
St. Asaph 1
Llandudno Junction 0
TBD -
Prestatyn -
Cardiff Corries 2
Caerau Ely 3
TBD -
Afan Lido -
Llanidloes Town 5
Builth 4
Radnor Valley 0
Gresford 4
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Pontardawe -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
NFA 0
Flint Mountain 3
TBD -
Holywell Town FC -
Canton 3
Sully Sports 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Penydarren 2
South Gower AFC 3
Rockspur 4
Afan United 2
Chepstow Town 7
Pill 0
Abercarn United 4
St Albans 1
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
Baglan Dragons 5
Cwmaman Institute 1
Goytre Utd 1
Trefelin 3
Ammanford Town 1
Taffs Well 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Aber Valley 2
Cwmbran Town 3
Mochdre Sports 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 13
Montgomery 1
Pwllheli 1
Felinheli 2
TBD -
Newtown -
Colwyn Bay -
TBD -
Llanrwst United 2
Conwy Borough 1
Barry Town -
TBD -
Treharris Athletic 1
Porthcawl Town 2
Brickfield Rangers 3
Caersws FC 1
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TBD -
Penycae FC 1
Rhos Aelwyd 4
Aberfan 2
Pontyclun FC 1
TBD -
Briton Ferry -
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Llantwit Major -
Cwmbran Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
Mumbles Rangers 1
Evans Williams 2
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
Caerphilly 1
Ruthin Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Trethomas Bluebirds 4
Ely Rangers 1
Llantwit Fardre 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 4
1/32-finals
Chirk AAA FC 1
Porthmadog 2
Abergavenny Town 1
Cardiff Airport 3
Menai Bridge Tigers 0
Llanuwchllyn 2
Bow Street 2
Buckley 3
Cefn Albion 1
Bangor 1876 7
Denbigh 0
Flint Town 3
Connahs Q. 4
Caernarfon 1
St. Asaph 0
Prestatyn 1
Caerau Ely 4
Afan Lido 0
Llanidloes Town 1
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 2
Pontardawe 1
Bala 3
Llandudno FC 0
Flint Mountain 3
Holywell Town FC 1
Canton 2
Cambrian United 1
South Gower AFC 1
Rockspur 0
Chepstow Town 4
Abercarn United 0
Haverfordwest 1
Baglan Dragons 0
Trefelin 2
Ammanford Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Cwmbran Town 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 3
Felinheli 0
Newtown 6
Colwyn Bay 6
Llanrwst United 2
Barry Town 6
Porthcawl Town 0
Brickfield Rangers 2
Guilsfield 7
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Rhos Aelwyd 0
Aberfan 0
Briton Ferry 3
Llanelli 4
Llantwit Major 0
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 2
Evans Williams 0
Pontypridd United -
Abertillery Bluebirds -
Ruthin Town 0
TNS 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 5
Cardiff Airport 1
Llanuwchllyn 1
Buckley 2
Bangor 1876 1
Flint Town 2
Connahs Q. 8
Prestatyn 0
Caerau Ely 4
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 0
Bala 1
Flint Mountain 2
Canton 1
South Gower AFC 3
Chepstow Town 2
Haverfordwest 2
Ammanford Town 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Mold Alexandra 1
Newtown 1
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 1
Guilsfield 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Briton Ferry 2
Llanelli 4
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 4
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
TNS 7
Trethomas Bluebirds 0
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 0
Buckley 2
Flint Town 0
Connahs Q. 3
Caerau Ely 1
Bala 4
Flint Mountain 2
South Gower AFC 1
Haverfordwest 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 0
Briton Ferry 1
Llanelli 0
Carmarthen Town 0
TNS 3
Quarter-finals
Buckley 1
Connahs Q. 4
Bala 3
Flint Mountain 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Colwyn Bay 2
Briton Ferry 1
TNS 5
Semi-finals
Connahs Q. 1
Bala 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 6
Final
Connahs Q. 2
TNS 1
